Future of Afghanistan

" President Obama has indicated that he might be nearing the beginning of the end of the Iraq War but US congressman John Murtha says today that the situation in Afghanistan so challenging. He estimates it would take 600000 troops to fully squelch violence in that country. The Pennsylvania Democrat chairs the powerful subcommittee that funds the military and says his figure is based on the country's history of rigorous fighting and its size. And Defense Secretary Robert Gates says today he cannot predict when the US would be able to leave Afghanistan but that it won't be -- For morning -- join of the KCBS news line by CBS news consultant Jerry van -- an expert on Afghanistan who covered the war there. For the New York Times thanks so much for the time this afternoon 600000. Troops that is a large number it's about four times what we have an Iraq right now. What do you make of -- assessment."

" Good afternoon American Melissa what -- it's important to note here is that congressman Murtha -- Is -- thirty year. Marine corps veteran and is very close to the US military he's probably not talking out of turn if you will I'm sure you read numerous discussions with US military he made countless trips to Iraq. And was very close to the military officers there when the Soviet Union. Within Afghanistan at the time that I covered that war for the -- they had a 116000. Soldiers they only controlled the city. They fought for ten years and then they lost and they pulled out there are provinces to date code. US has lost more soldiers than in any other provinces along the Afghan Pakistani border to the north east. The Soviets never control that border state now say that there are about ten to fifteen. Maximum. 20000. Taliban if you will along the border -- in the -- fighting. Over are close to 50000 NATO and US soldiers and they have brought him to a standstill."

" So what is the what is Defense Secretary gate mean that when he says local law will be their for a long time as long three years five years ten years."

" What he would thank his that we don't yet know what we're doing we don't know yet exactly what our strategy is going to be where it combined this warm in this has been demonstrated. Countless times by -- NATO officials and American officials I think secretary gates and he considers this war will never be won militarily it's only going to be one way and the US. Is able to win the hearts and minds of the people report came out just recently stating that the US and NATO that killed more civilians -- here. And the Taliban. During 18000 villages in Afghanistan the country to the size of Texas with only one paper wrote the goes around the country. Parent what you have here is an increasingly. Dangerous situation where the people now are not against you they're not against NATO but if you go out into these villages what they will tell you. Is that they don't really know the difference. In their mind between the Soviet. And the west dirt there invaders. They're infidels and the United States has got to find a way with its allies. To win the hearts and minds of these people already have to -- I don't know about 600000. But a tremendous number of soldiers into that country in the -- there is no infrastructure electorate in Iraq to hold that many. It's going to be a very very difficult thing and that is why I believe. The secretary gates is not sure yet what they're going to do."

" Jerry -- only got thirty seconds left but -- there is anybody talking about what the United States could do to win the hearts and minds of the people of a scanner stand and make it more of a diplomatic mission than a military one."

" The rest of the day if you go there and I what do I spent two years they're just Ellwood city and tucked into the US military and then they most of the work used is a reconstruction. That the US is trying to do a lot of good things and they certainly are. We have to work with Pakistan you have to work with Iran you have to find a way to engage these people were fighting against don't find a way to come to some sort of accommodation. Otherwise we're going to have a very very serious insurgency and John Murtha was right. They have been fighting and the heat until today that the British where they're now they're here for revenge because we defeated them twice before -- to defeat them again. We have a long road double and Afghanistan."

" All right thanks Raymond CBS news. Consultant Jerry van -- an expert in Afghanistan."